Just as it was in 2008, the youth vote is going to be crucial for President Obama's chances in 2012. But he could have a tougher time earning it this time around.

Mr. Obama won the presidency in 2008 in no small measure because of strong support among younger voters. But that support sagged for Democrats in 2010, and the party paid dearly in the midterm congressional elections.

Recovering that vote will be important for the president at a time when the economy is shaky, and his support is eroding in other demographic groups that were key to his 2008 win, including white males, the working class and Hispanics.

In swing states such as Colorado, where the population trends younger, the youth vote may be the decisive factor.

STUDENT SUMMITS

Certainly the Obama campaign is treating the young vote as potentially decisive. It recently launched something called Greater Together, a program aimed specifically at mobilizing voters aged 18 to 29. Late last year, it held the first of a series of "student summits," this one conducted by campaign chief Jim Messina and live-streamed to 80 college campuses across the country. And it has hired an activist whose experience includes running the Hip-Hop Summit Action Network to lead a young-voter drive.

Younger voters start out as a core support group for the president. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that the president's job approval among Americans aged 18 to 29—the traditional definition of younger voters—is 51%,
compared with 37% among those 35 to 49.

A survey of generational attitudes just completed by the Pew Research Center shows that younger voters prefer
President Obama by 26 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup against Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Still, younger Americans have been hit as hard as anyone by economic turmoil during Mr. Obama's term, and in some ways harder. Job opportunities have been scarce for young Americans, and college graduates are finding an unfriendly environment for employment and pay.

The unemployment rate among those 20 to 24 stands at 14%, well above the 8%-to-9% national rate. And the Pew survey, while finding wide support for the president, also found that the share of young voters who identify themselves as either solidly Democratic or leaning Democratic has fallen to 50% now from 58% in 2008.

"As with all of the electorate, these people are going through a rough time," says one Obama campaign official. "There's not the euphoric atmosphere of the '08 experience." Indeed, the Pew report notes that these younger voters "are much less engaged in politics than they were at this stage in the 2008 campaign."

On the other hand, the campaign official asserts, there's limited evidence of enthusiasm for Republican candidates among younger voters.

So the biggest challenge for the Obama campaign is going to be the perennial one of turnout: getting younger voters registered and out to the polls.

A look back at exit polls from 2008 shows exactly how crucial that challenge is for Mr. Obama. He won the 18-to-29 age group by 66% to 32%, which the Pew report says is the largest margin by any presidential candidate among any age group in any election since 1972. By contrast, Mr. Obama was even with Sen. John McCain among voters aged 45 to 64, and lost among those 65 and over. Moreover, those younger voters made up 18% of the electorate.

In the 2010 midterm elections, that big turnout and big Democratic margin evaporated. Younger voters fell to 11% of the electorate, and their support for Democrats dropped to 57% from that lofty 66% for Mr. Obama. As a result, Republicans took back control of the House of Representatives.

SLIPPERY GROUP

Remove the advantage Mr. Obama enjoyed among younger voters, and it would have been a very close race in 2008. Replicate that advantage in 2010, and much of the GOP edge would have disappeared in the midterm election.

There is a big difference between a presidential election and a midterm election, and younger voters normally don't show up in anything like the same numbers in the latter. The difference may have been unusually pronounced between 2008 and 2010, because so much of the turnout in 2008 was generated by the historic nature and particular appeal of Mr. Obama's candidacy rather than any love of politics or desire to help Democrats generally.

Because the 2008 campaign had that lightning-in-a-bottle feeling, replicating the Obama performance among young voters won't be easy. The campaign faces a whole new set of 18- to 21-year-olds to try to register and turn out, and a need to re-register many of those from last time who have moved on to other locations.

Young voters can be a slippery group; the president's fate may turn on whether he still has his grip on them.

OBJECTIVE
Evaluate why candidates covet the youth vote

OVERVIEW
Just as it was in 2008, the youth vote is going to be crucial for President Obama's chances in 2012. But he could have a tougher time earning it this time around.

STANDARDS
NBEA: communication, marketing; NCEE: decision-making; NCSS: time, continuity and change, individuals, groups and institutions, civic ideals and practices; NCTE: communication

REVIEW
Read the article "One for the Ages" and answer these questions:

1) How have young Americans been affected by the economic downturn?

2) Why will be it difficult for Mr. Obama to replicate his performance among young voters in the 2012 election?

ACTIVITY IDEAS

• Do you care about politics? Why or why not? Divide into groups and discuss the ways people aged 18 to 29 are affected by politics and why they should pay attention.

• How do you register to vote in your state? Find out at http://www.youthvote.org/. For students who are 18, or will be 18 by November, create a place in your school where interested students can go to get information on how to register. It could be a table in a main hallway or a display in the guidance counselor's office. Provide registration forms from your local Secretary of State or board of elections--many provide downloadable forms from their websites--and invite candidates to place campaign material nearby for potential voters.

• Many states now allow teens to pre-register to vote. Potential voters can send in their registration at age 16 and it will automatically go into effect on their 18th birthday. Is this the law in your state? If so, add that information to your voter registration display and let all the students 16 and older in your school know they can register now. If not, write a letter to your local member of Congress asking him or her to support legislation allowing young voters to pre-register in your state.

• Take a survey in your school. Ask registered voters--teachers, students and staff--if they are planning to vote in November. Make sure to ask their age and tally the survey results based on age groups. Is one group more or less likely to vote in November? Discuss your findings as a class.

• The Iowa caucuses were Jan. 3. What were the results? What is the difference between the caucus in Iowa and the primary election in New Hampshire on Jan. 10? Discuss as a class.

• Have a mini-debate in your classroom. Ask members of the local Republican and Democratic parties to stand in for their candidates and debate the issues likely to be most important to young voters in the November election. Have the class vote to decide who won the debate.

• Invite your U.S. representative or senator to your classroom and ask him or her about ways to encourage young voters to become interested and active in politics. Ask about the issues he or she has worked on in the previous session that particularly impact young people (financial aid programs, medical insurance for college students, etc.).

• The article discusses live-streaming student summits. How important is it to young people that the candidates use technology and social media to connect with voters? Is it necessary for the candidates to have a presence on Facebook and Twitter? Why or why not? Discuss as a class.

ADDITIONAL READING

"The Meathead Vote" is a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that discusses the youth vote in a historic context.

"Politics Counts: The Rise of Gingrich and the Electability Question" discusses the main candidates for the Republican nomination for president.

"How the GOP Can Win Voters" examines some of the issues that may bring "millennials" to the polls in November--most significantly, the issue of employment.

WEB RESOURCES

Project Vote Youth Voting--Registration and Voting Among Young Americans

Republican National Committee

Democratic National Committee

Federal Election Commission